Complexity of Increasing Fuel Price

 

People lining up at gas station 

In the proposed 2015 budget,  the expenditure of energy subsidies reach Rp276 trillion. The amount was increased from the 2014 Budget of Rp246.5 trillion. Jokowi, the elected president has several times complained that the cost of the subsidy is so large.

When meeting with businessmen, Jokowi gave the signal to raise subsidized fuel prices, premium into Rp9,500 per liter from the current price of Rp6,500.

"We will provide Rp150 trillion next year, a big number," said Jokowi in a ceremony launching the Roadmap for Economic APINDO on Thursday night (18/9) .

The question, whether Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla to raise fuel per liter at once? We see the advantages and disadvantages of subsidized fuel price hike.

First, the government will earn cash for up to Rp150 trillion. The government, with the approval of the House, could use of funds for various purposes. As Jokowi promise,  the funds will be used to populist programs.

Second, high fuel prices will change consumer behavior. Many communities have been very lazy to walk or ride a bike, even for a few meters, such as going to a neighbor's house or taking the kids on the next block.

This behavior is also transmitted to children who often use prefer motorcycle than bike. Using private cars are also common practiced by many middle class.  If fuel is expensive, they will reduce their consumption.

Note PT Pertamina (Persero)  states that consumption of subsidized diesel from January to July 2014 to reach 9.12 million KL, or 60 percent of the quota of 15.16 million KL. Subsidized premium has actual consumption until July 31, 2014 amounted to 17.08 million KL or 58 percent of the quota 29.29 million KL. If no control, Pertamina estimates the consumption of subsidized diesel will expire on November 30 and the premium on December 19, 2014.

With the ever-increasing number of vehicles, the fuel consumption will also continue to increase.

Third, Indonesia's trade deficit continues to grow due to import fuel. In June, the trade balance recorded a deficit of US$305.1 million.  

According Suryamin, Head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the trade deficit was due to higher oil imports. Import of oil products in June reached US$ 11.39 billion. Though our non-oil trade surplus to US$6 billion.

Fourth, with high fuel prices, bio fuel and gas business can compete. So far, no investor is interested in creating a gas refueling station as long as there is competitor from cheap of subsidized fuel . Naturally, if the plan to build the bio fuel industry was never smooth.

Fifth, smuggling can be reduced. Remember the case of unscrupulous civil servants  who has bank account for Rp1.5 trillion in Batam who allegedly smuggled fuel.

Sixth, oil imports could fall if the price of domestic fuel is expensive. Of course the condition of public transport must be improved. If not corrected, people will still be using a private vehicle.

Negative impacts are there of rising subsidized fuel.

First, the poor face inflation. Cash aids are ineffective for helping the poor. For those whose lives are mediocre, in terms of cost of living for most of the meal, they will directly hit.

Secondly, due to the rising cost of living, the workers will demand higher wages. There are several effects that arise from this situation. Companies are to lay off workers to reduce production costs. Small industry and SMEs will be hit because the cost of swell, especially in transportation.

On a production line that allows the use of machinery, labor will be replaced with robotic production. Workers will increasingly tight competition, especially when later opened to the entry of foreign workers in 2016.  If not survive, the owner of the plant will move abroad.

The impact of workers' demands not only the economic, but also political effects. Members of the House of Representatives in particular the opposition will play this side to get a bargain value.

Thus, I estimate Jokowi will not increase fuel prices more than 30 percent. Many of the risks to be faced Jokowi-JK considering there strong opposition from Team of Red and White.

First, image Jokowi straight down sharply if  he raises fuel prices significantly, for example over 30 percent. If it was going to go up Rp3,000 per liter, most likely will be phased in several times. If desperate, demos anti fuel price hike will be enlarged.

Second, the opposition in the House will take advantage  from demonstrations. They will try to prevent the planned increase in fuel. Unless the coalition Red and White broke, then Jokowi-JK will be able to pass through the House. But if Prabowo side is compact, extremely difficult to be intercepted, especially if Democrats join to Prabowo.

Democrats are very important factors in this case. Democrats could  joined to approve the increase in fuel prices with rational reasons. But, once again, Democrats will only agree with many conditions, among others, do not go up significantly and the obvious use of subsidies and protection for the poor.

Democrat Party under SBY leadership tends to respect the people's choice and he will prevent demonstration turns into an impeachment (dismissal) President Jokowi. Democrats will strive to keep the current government for five years to come.

Rihad Wiranto (opinion)

Jokowi-JK Need More Power

Jokowi in action  for  journalist

Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla  win the presidential election of Indonesia. But many experts say it is not easy task   for Jokowi running his power.

The contender pair, Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa has votes nearly 43 percent, a big enough compared the winner with 53 percent.

Jokowi needs big coalition in DPR (people's representative) to save  his policies as president. Many policies have to  pass  approval from legislative and majority vote is needed to make sure all Jokowi's programs can be implemented.

Jokowi-JK has only minority chairs  in DPR,  the situation is fragile from oposition attacking. The Jokowi's coalition are PDIP as the main parties, Nasdem, Hanura, and PKPI.

Its block could not control legislative effectively and Jokowi could not drive  the government easily instead it would be like lame duck, president with no power.    

In other side, Red White Coalition supporting Prabowo-Hatta  has  majority vote in DPR with parties member, namely Golkar, Gerindra, PPP, PBB, PAN, and PKS.

Good news for Jokowi,  there is not guarantee the Red White Coalition will be solid. It is not easy for Golkar, for example, to be opposition related with the party doesn't have experience as government opponent. Golkar always takes part in the ruling government and the opposition status will be the new role.

Formally, Golkar as a institution would not  joint with  Jokowi side but its member, personally,  can take part in government as minister, for example.

Tantowi Yahya of Golkar says as a cadre of party, someone can involve in Jokowi's ministerial cabinet. Yahya gives the statement    as guess in TVOne's Talk Sow program, last week. The statement is not the institution view, but Yahya's opinion gives signal there is chance for a cadre to walk on  the different road.

Head of PAN, Hatta Rajasa has met Jokowi at Surya Paloh house at Jakarta early last week. The meeting likely is designed not for public exposure. Thank to journalist hunting the sensitive issue who took the foto of Hatta walking out from the house. Even only blurry picture, it has forced him to admit the meeting publicly.

Hatta says his visiting to Surya Paloh house just communication as friend.  Even he has opposite views with Jokowi's side, via television news programs, Hatta will not cut the relation. However, for observers, the meeting is not just stopping by, there is strong code, Hatta open his hands for cooperation with his rival.

Still, It will be many lobbies and “comunication” for setting up balancing power in DPR. Jokowi need amunition of power before sitting on the presidential chair.

Rihad Wiranto

Kebebasan Pers Harus Dijaga, Kapanpun

Pada 20 Oktober mendatang, Presiden SBY akan menuntaskan masa jabatannya. Salah satu yang menarik dari pemerintahan SBY adalah hubungannya dengan dunia pers yang terkadang turun naik tapi tetap hangat. Ada kalanya, SBY menjadi media darling dengan mendapatkan dukungan luar biasa dari media. Tapi di saat yang lain, media mengkritik SBY dengan sangat pedas.

Keluarga SBY pun kadang merasa "tersudutkan" oleh pemberitaan media massa. Bahkan, sering kali kritik dilakukan tanpa disertai data atau fakta akurat.

Dalam acara peluncuran buku "SBY dan Kebebasan Pers"di Jakarta, Jumat (5/9), Presiden SBY menggambarkan hubungan pemerintah dengan awak media bagaikan "benci tapi rindu". Siapa pun yang jadi Presiden di negara demokrasi akan merasakan suasana seperti itu.

Walau pers sering mengkritik keras, Presiden SBY tidak pernah membenci atau mengambil jarak dengan media massa. Presiden tetap proporsional, tenang dalam setiap pernyataan, namun tetap menampilkan kehangatan.

Bagi Presiden, kritik walaupun terasa sakit, tapi itu ibarat obat, yang bila diminum dalam dosis tepat, justru bisa menyembuhkan penyakit. Dengan kritikan pers, kata Presiden, ia bisa terhindar dari penyalahgunaan kekuasaan. Selain itu, kritikan pers juga menjadi semacam "penyaluran" terhadap berbagai ketidakpuasan masyarakat.

Kemampuan SBY dalam menciptakan hubungan hangat dengan pers turut membangun sebuah kebebasan pers tanpa rasa takut untuk menyampaikan pendapat. Suasana kebebasan itu juga dirasakan masyarakat, seperti tampak dalam demonstrasi yang meramaikan kehidupan demokrasi.

Di bawah kepemimpinan SBY, pers Indonesia benar-benar menikmati kebebasan. Hal itu terjadi karena Presiden dan negara tidak pernah mencampuri urusan kebebasan pers. Mereka yang merasa dirugikan oleh pers bisa menyampaikan keberatan dengan prosedur yang benar, bukan dengan memaksakan kehendak.

Pendekatan hukum terhadap konflik pers dan masyarakat menjadi tradisi yang baik dan perlu dipertahankan.
Sikap positif Presiden SBY terlihat dari tidak adanya teguran langsung kepada media meski pers mengkritik secara keras. Bahwa SBY menyampaikan pendapat tentang peran pers yang benar, hal itu bida dinilai wajar. Biasanya, SBY menyampaikan kritik balik kepada pers ketika memperingati Hari Pers.

Jacob Oetama, pendiri Kompas bahkan menilai kemerdekaan pers selama sepuluh tahun terakhir lebih bagus dibandingkan dengan era-era sebelumnya, meskipun tentu saja belum ideal.

Pada mulanya -2004 lalu - SBY tampil sebagai "media darling".  Dalam perjalanan waktu, SBY terus menjadi sasaran kritik media. Namun, Presiden menanggapi kritik itu sebagai sebuah dinamika kehidupan Negara demokrasi.


Presiden SBY paham betul, bahwa seperti halnya demokrasi, kebebasan pers juga perlu dirawat dan dimekarkan. Hubungan seperti inilah yang akan dicatat dan dikenang dalam sejarah perjalanan pers Nasional. Biarpun Presiden SBY tidak lagi memerintah, tetapi gaya dan cara pembawaan diri  terhadap insan pers, akan tetap dikenang.  

Pers yang kritis dan konstruktif harus dipertahankan di pemerintah Jokowi-JK. Seperti dikatakan SBY, kini pemegang kekuasaan telah menyebar, baik presiden, parlemen, pers, dan penegak hukum. Presiden mengingatkan insan pers agar terus mampu menyerimbangkan antara kebebasan dan kekuasaan.

Rihad Wiranto (dimuat di Jurnal Nasional halaman 2, 9 September 2014)

SBY Tak Pantas Disalahkan Terkait Subsidi BBM

SBY dan Jokowi bertemu di Bali 27 Agustus 2014

Sejak lama subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) menjadi masalah serius karena jumlahnya terus membengkak. Menurut catatan INDEF, dalam lima tahun terakhir, APBN pincang karena subsidi BBM mencapai 20-40 persen dari total pengeluaran pemerintah pusat.

Pada Rancangan Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (RAPBN) tahun depan, subsidi BBM mencapai Rp363,5 triliun. Angka ini jauh lebih besar jika dibandingkan dengan subsidi nonenergi seperti pangan, pupuk, benih, dan lainnya hanya Rp69,9 triliun.

Beberapa orang mengkritik, seolah-olah RAPBN itu akan membebani pemerintahan selanjutnya. Bahkan ada yang mendesak Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono untuk menaikan harga BBM sebelum pemerintahannya berakhir 20 Oktober nanti.

Desakan ini menimbulkan makna bersayap. Di satu sisi, seolah-olah pengritik menilai RAPBN tidak dibuat dengan dengan realitas ekonomi mendatang. Tetapi di sisi lain, sesungguhnya pemerintahan baru nanti tampak ingin mengalihkan beban ke pemerintah SBY terkait beban subsidi BBM.

Seperti disampaikan SBY, menaikan harga BBM saat ini adalah sangat tidak tepat. Kenaikan harga BBM akan menambah beban masyarakat. Harus diingat, pemerintah telah menaikan harga BBM pada 2013. Pada 2014, tarif dasar listrik juga naik secara bertahap. Alasan lain, harga minyak internasional juga cenderung menurun.

Keputusan yang diambil pemerintah SBY seharusnya dihormati oleh pihak manapun. Lebih lanjut, Presiden SBY menegaskan tidak ada niat sama sekali untuk membebani pemerintah baru nanti.

Penyataan SBY itu sangat jelas. Sebuah pemerintahan, termasuk Jokowi-JK harus mengambil risiko dan tantangan yang ada, bukan malah menyalahkan pemerintah sebelumnya.

Sesungguhnya apa yang dilakukan SBY dan Jokowi dengan mengadakan pertemuan di Bali, sangatlah bijaksana. Ini adalah sebuah langkah mulia yang bisa menjadi tradisi di masa mendatang. Pada pertemuan selanjutnya, kedua pihak bisa membahas masalah teknis, termasuk RAPBN 2015. Tiga menteri sudah diutus SBY untuk bertemu dengan Tim Transisi Jokowi-JK.

Saat ini, Bappenas juga tengah memadukan antara program Jokowi-JK dengan program yang sedang dijalankan pemerintah SBY. Beberapa program Jokowi-JK sebenarnya sudah dilaksanakan saat ini meski dengan nama dan konsep yang berbeda. Program Kartu Indonesia Pintar yang digagas Jokowi-JK bisa dipadukan dengan berbagai program pendidikan saat ini, misalnya program Bidikmisi untuk mahasiswa dari keluarga miskin.

Dengan demikian kebijakan SBY yang baik bisa dilanjutkan atau disempurnakan oleh pemerintah mendatang. Langkah ini sangat strategis, saling melengkapi dan saling mendukung.